POV GUY PROPERTY INTELLIGENCE

Singapore Real Estate · HNW Strategy Brief

Monthly Report · March 2026
Period: 18 Feb – 18 Mar 2026
Live Intel
Sources: URA · HDB · MAS · SRX · EdgeProp · Business Times · 99.co · Stacked Homes · Reuters · CNBC
Fed Rate 3.75% HOLD
SORA 3M 1.1% Stable
SG GDP 2026 3.6% ↑ Upgraded
URA PPI QoQ +0.89% Q3'25
URA PPI YoY +5.08% Q3'25
Unsold Units 14,859 15Q Low
HDB RPI 209.7 Flat
Foreigner ABSD 60% No change

🌐 Macro Environment

Global signals affecting Singapore property demand & financing

⚡ Fed Decision · March 18, 2026
📌 The Fed held rates UNCHANGED at 3.5%–3.75% today. 99% probability of hold was priced in by CME FedWatch. Next cut now not expected until Sept/Oct 2026 at earliest — Iran war oil shock delaying the easing cycle.
💡 What this means for SG borrowers: SORA 3M is range-bound 1.1–1.2%. Fixed mortgage packages available at 1.4–1.8%. MAS may tighten the S$NEER slope in April — 47% of economists now expect it, up from just 5.6% in December.
🇸🇬 Singapore Economy
GDP Growth 2026
3.6%
↑ Upgraded from 2.3%
Core Inflation 2026
1.5%
Benign, well-managed
AI & Tech Sector Strength Strong
Family Office Inflows 2,000+ FOs
SGD Stability (MAS NEER) Managed Tight
Geopolitical Risk (Iran Oil) Elevated

🏢 Private Residential Market

URA price indices, transaction volumes, and inventory signals

📈
PPI — All Private (QoQ)
+0.89%
↑ Q3 2025
5th consecutive quarter of growth
📊
PPI — All Private (YoY)
+5.08%
↑ Full Year
Sustained appreciation above inflation
🏠
Q3 2025 Transactions
7,404
↑ +37.83% YoY
Strongest Q3 volume in years
📦
Unsold Inventory
14,859
↓ 15Q Low
Tightest supply pipeline since 2022
📉 URA Price Index Trend
Private Residential PPI — All Regions (Indexed Q1 2022 = 100)
🗺️ Market by Region
Performance signals by CCR / RCR / OCR
🔮
Core Central Region (CCR)
D1–D11 · Luxury · GCBs
+3.2%
Rental YoY
🏙️
Rest of Central Region (RCR)
City fringe · Strong demand
+1.7%
Rental YoY
🏘️
Outside Central Region (OCR)
Mass market · EC demand strong
+2.2%
Rental YoY
Expert Signal

CCR rental outperformance (+3.2% YoY) confirms luxury demand remains anchored. With unsold inventory at a 15-quarter low, the supply floor is firm. Buyers who entered Q3 2025 are already sitting on meaningful unrealised gains.

🚀 New Launch Activity · Feb–Mar 2026

Tracking developer launches, pricing benchmarks, and absorption rates

📋 Active Launch Pipeline
Newport Residences RCR
Launched Jan 31, 2026 · Marina / River area
57% sold opening weekend
$3,370
avg psf
Narra Residences OCR
Dairy Farm · D23 · 530 units · Mar 2026
$2,180
avg psf
River Modern RCR
Singapore River · 455 units · Sales from Feb 7
TBC
preview Feb 20
De Souza Avenue RCR
D21 · 347 units · Mar 2026 launch
TBC
upcoming
Bayshore OCR
D16 · 480 units · Mar/Apr 2026
TBC
upcoming
Rivelle EC EC
Tampines West · D16 · 572 units
~$1,450
est. psf
📊 Absorption Signals
Week of Jan 26–Feb 1
335
new private units sold
Strong rebound
💎 Newport Residences' 57% sellout at $3,370 psf on opening weekend signals that CCR-adjacent buyers have strong conviction — despite 60% ABSD for foreigners.

🏘️ HDB Resale Market · February 2026

Volume, pricing benchmarks, and million-dollar flat trends

📉
Feb Transactions
1,670
↓ -29% MoM
CNY + Ramadan seasonal dip
📊
HDB RPI (Feb)
209.7
→ Unchanged MoM
Prices holding despite lower volume
💰
Annual Price Growth
2.9%
↓ vs 9.7% in 2024
Moderation, not correction
🏆
$1M+ HDB Deals (Feb)
122
↑ 7.3% of volume
Highest % share ever recorded
🗓️ HDB Resale Volume Trend
💡 HDB Market Reads
Record: Most Expensive HDB Ever Sold

$1.7M for a 5-room flat at SkyTerrace @ Dawson (Queenstown). This is no longer an anomaly — it's a benchmark. D9-adjacent mature estates are commanding prices that overlap with entry-level private condos.

Upgrader Signal

The drop in HDB volume is seasonal (CNY + Ramadan), not structural. With prices holding at RPI 209.7, HDB owners sitting on significant equity. The case for upgrading to private — especially as HDB MOP cohorts exit — is building.

Million-Dollar HDB at 7.3% of Volume

Despite falling volumes, premium flats are taking a larger share. This tells us quality buyers remain active. The HDB resale market is bifurcating: desirable mature estates hold firm; peripheral locations face softer demand.

📌 2026 HDB guidance: expect 1–3% annual price growth. For upgraders, the window to sell while sentiment holds firm remains open — but timing matters as new BTO supply from 2025 completions absorbs some demand.

🔑 Rental Market · Jan–Feb 2026

Condo and HDB rental trends, yield environment, and MNC demand signals

📈
Condo Rent Growth (MoM)
+0.6%
Jan 2026
Stable, modestly positive
📊
Condo Rent Growth (YoY)
+2.5%
↑ vs Dec 2025
Led by CCR at +3.2%
🏠
Rental Volume (Jan)
6,708
↑ +11.7% MoM
Strong post-December rebound
🌏
Logistics Yield (SG)
6.5%
30yr leasehold
Attractive vs regional peers
📊 Rental Yield by District Type
🏢 Rental Demand Drivers
MNC & Expat Cluster (D9/D10/D11) Strong
Tech Sector Employment Growth Rising
Family Office Residential Demand Growing
BTO Completion Supply Pressure Moderate
New Condo Completion Pressure Moderate
Rental Outlook 2026

Market has stabilised after 2023–2024 peak. Yields are compressing slightly as supply increases, but D9/D10/D11 CCR rental demand from Fortune 500 expat clusters remains the most durable income stream in Singapore property.

🌍 Overseas Investor Signal · SG vs. Dubai

Capital rotation thesis — why smart money is moving to Singapore

🇸🇬 Singapore

GDP upgraded to 2.0–4.0% for 2026; MAS survey consensus 3.6%
SGD managed via NEER — insulated from Fed volatility. No currency risk for SGD-denominated assets
733 km² — fixed supply. GLS controls pipeline. Government will not flood the market
2,000+ family offices — 59% of all Asia FOs based in Singapore. Capital inflow structural, not cyclical
Rule of law: no arbitrary property seizure risk. English common law. Transparent title
Proven safe haven: AFC 1997, GFC 2008, COVID 2020 — capital flows INTO Singapore in every crisis
D9/D10/D11 CCR rents growing at +3.2% YoY, anchored by MNC expat cluster

🇦🇪 Dubai — Risks

~55,000–100,000 units expected to complete in 2026 — significant supply wave with real oversupply risk in mid-market
Price growth slowing from 22% (2023) → 18% (2024) → ~13% (2025). Deceleration trend clear
Iran war geopolitical risk elevated — Middle East capital flows disrupted, oil shock complicating regional stability
No LTV or cooling measure equivalent — speculative investor exposure higher than reported
AED pegged to USD → exposed to full Fed rate uncertainty. No MAS-style buffer
High-supply delivery-heavy communities expect price stagnation or decline in 2026
22 consecutive quarters of growth has priced in substantial optimism — risk/reward skewing unfavourably
🏢 Singapore Family Office Growth
📈 2,000+ family offices in Singapore — up 43% YoY. 59% of all Asia FOs are based here. This is structural capital that finds its way into SG property. The FO influx is the single biggest undiscussed driver of luxury property demand.
💡 The Overseas Investor Thesis
Why Singapore — Why Now

For capital sitting in Dubai, London, or Hong Kong: the risk/reward equation has shifted. Dubai faces a genuine supply reckoning in 2026 with 55,000–100,000 units completing. Singapore, by contrast, has its lowest unsold inventory in 15 quarters. Scarcity + stability + rule of law = the most defensible store of wealth in Asia.

The ABSD Reality Check

Yes, foreigners pay 60% ABSD. But frame it correctly: a $3M CCR condo appreciating at 5% annually generates $150K/year in paper gains — and a buyer who entered in 2022 is sitting on 12–15% total appreciation. The ABSD is a one-time entry cost; the carry and appreciation are permanent. Many HNW overseas buyers are choosing to pay it.

Government Backing — Unique to Singapore

Property in Singapore is social infrastructure. The government has a vested interest in ensuring citizens build wealth through it. MND, HDB, URA, and MAS coordinate supply, pricing, and financing with deliberate intent. No other city in Asia provides this level of institutional backstop to property values.

🏗️ Government Land Sales (GLS) · 2026

Supply pipeline signals from the world's most controlled land market

🏆
Tanjong Rhu Top Bid
$1,455
psf ppr
Record for RCR GLS site · CDL
📍
Tanjong Rhu Total
$709M
Top bid · 5 bidders
Closed Feb 5, 2026
🌿
Lentor Central Top Bid
$657M
5 bidders
Closed March 5, 2026
🏘️
1H 2026 Pipeline
4,575
Confirmed list
9 sites incl. 2 EC, 1 mixed-use
📊 1H 2026 GLS Confirmed List
Site Type Region Est. Units Status Signal
Tanjong Rhu Road Private Res. RCR ~300 Awarded · $1,455 psf ppr Record RCR price
Lentor Central Private Res. OCR ~570 5 bids · $657M top Strong competition
Woodlands Drive 17 EC OCR ~495 Record $984 psf ppr EC EC floor rising
Bayshore Road Private Res. OCR ~480 Upcoming · Mar/Apr 2026 Watch closely
Mixed-Use (TBC) Mixed RCR Scheduled 1H 2026 Monitoring
🔍 GLS Bottom Line: Record land prices at Tanjong Rhu ($1,455 psf ppr) and EC site Woodlands ($984 psf ppr) set new benchmarks. Developers are bidding aggressively — signalling conviction that end-user pricing can absorb higher land costs. Future launches from these sites will likely clear $2,500+ psf (RCR) and $1,600+ psf (OCR EC). This is a forward indicator for price levels 12–18 months out.

🎯 Expert Read — March 2026 Strategy

Actionable intelligence for upgraders, local investors, and overseas capital

🏠 HDB Upgraders

The window to sell your HDB while prices hold firm (RPI 209.7) is open — but it is not permanent. BTO completions from 2025 will gradually add resale competition from late 2026 onwards.

Meanwhile, private condo inventory is at a 15-quarter low and developers are pricing up. The gap between entry-level HDB ($1.7M resale) and entry private (new launch OCR ~$1.9–2.1M) has never been narrower.

Move: Assess your MOP status now. Those within 12 months of MOP should begin pre-planning the decoupling and financial structuring conversation.

📈 Local Investors

CCR rental growth at +3.2% YoY with SORA at just 1.1–1.2% creates the most favourable carry environment since 2021. A $2M CCR condo at 3.2% gross yield generates $64K/year in rental income against ~$20–25K in mortgage interest.

GLS land prices at record highs signal that replacement cost for new launches is rising. Existing inventory in the same corridors becomes more valuable by comparison.

Move: Focus on CCR resale with strong rental track records. The new launch premium does not make sense when secondary market value is being underpinned by record GLS costs.

🌍 Overseas Investors

Dubai's supply tsunami (55,000–100,000 completions in 2026) against Singapore's 15-quarter inventory low is the starkest supply divergence between two major luxury markets globally right now.

The Iran war has disrupted Middle East capital flows — some of that rotation is finding Singapore. Add 2,000+ family offices calling Singapore home, SGD strength, and no currency risk, and the calculus is clear.

Move: For qualifying buyers, the ABSD is the price of entry into the world's most stable property market. Model total cost of ownership over 7–10 years — the appreciation thesis overwhelms the entry cost for the right asset.

🏙️ Monthly Intel Summary — February 18 to March 18, 2026
🌐 Macro Pulse
  • • Fed held at 3.5–3.75%; oil shock delays cuts to Sept/Oct
  • • SORA 3M range-bound at 1.1–1.2% — favourable for borrowers
  • • SG GDP upgraded to 3.6% by MAS survey consensus
  • • MAS potentially tightening S$NEER slope in April
🏢 Local Signals
  • • URA PPI: +0.89% QoQ, +5.08% YoY (Q3 2025)
  • • Unsold inventory at 15-quarter low: 14,859 units
  • • Newport Residences 57% sold at $3,370 psf (CCR)
  • • HDB RPI flat at 209.7; $1.7M record at SkyTerrace@Dawson
  • • GLS: record $1,455 psf ppr (Tanjong Rhu RCR)
🌍 Overseas Watch
  • • Dubai: 55–100K unit supply wave threatens mid-market
  • • Iran war disrupting Middle East capital allocation
  • • SG family offices: 2,000+, up 43% YoY
  • • CCR rental yield: 3.2% YoY growth — most durable income stream

Expert Read: Singapore property enters Q1 2026 with the tightest supply conditions in years, record developer conviction (GLS bids), and a macro backdrop where rates are stable and GDP is accelerating. The HDB-to-private upgrade opportunity is structural, not cyclical. For overseas capital, this is the clearest entry thesis since 2021. The price you pay today to enter the world's most policy-backstopped property market is likely the cheapest you'll see it for the next 5 years.

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