🌐 Macro Environment
Global signals affecting Singapore property demand & financing
🏢 Private Residential Market
URA price indices, transaction volumes, and inventory signals
CCR rental outperformance (+3.2% YoY) confirms luxury demand remains anchored. With unsold inventory at a 15-quarter low, the supply floor is firm. Buyers who entered Q3 2025 are already sitting on meaningful unrealised gains.
🚀 New Launch Activity · Feb–Mar 2026
Tracking developer launches, pricing benchmarks, and absorption rates
🏘️ HDB Resale Market · February 2026
Volume, pricing benchmarks, and million-dollar flat trends
$1.7M for a 5-room flat at SkyTerrace @ Dawson (Queenstown). This is no longer an anomaly — it's a benchmark. D9-adjacent mature estates are commanding prices that overlap with entry-level private condos.
The drop in HDB volume is seasonal (CNY + Ramadan), not structural. With prices holding at RPI 209.7, HDB owners sitting on significant equity. The case for upgrading to private — especially as HDB MOP cohorts exit — is building.
Despite falling volumes, premium flats are taking a larger share. This tells us quality buyers remain active. The HDB resale market is bifurcating: desirable mature estates hold firm; peripheral locations face softer demand.
🔑 Rental Market · Jan–Feb 2026
Condo and HDB rental trends, yield environment, and MNC demand signals
Market has stabilised after 2023–2024 peak. Yields are compressing slightly as supply increases, but D9/D10/D11 CCR rental demand from Fortune 500 expat clusters remains the most durable income stream in Singapore property.
🌍 Overseas Investor Signal · SG vs. Dubai
Capital rotation thesis — why smart money is moving to Singapore
🇸🇬 Singapore
🇦🇪 Dubai — Risks
For capital sitting in Dubai, London, or Hong Kong: the risk/reward equation has shifted. Dubai faces a genuine supply reckoning in 2026 with 55,000–100,000 units completing. Singapore, by contrast, has its lowest unsold inventory in 15 quarters. Scarcity + stability + rule of law = the most defensible store of wealth in Asia.
Yes, foreigners pay 60% ABSD. But frame it correctly: a $3M CCR condo appreciating at 5% annually generates $150K/year in paper gains — and a buyer who entered in 2022 is sitting on 12–15% total appreciation. The ABSD is a one-time entry cost; the carry and appreciation are permanent. Many HNW overseas buyers are choosing to pay it.
Property in Singapore is social infrastructure. The government has a vested interest in ensuring citizens build wealth through it. MND, HDB, URA, and MAS coordinate supply, pricing, and financing with deliberate intent. No other city in Asia provides this level of institutional backstop to property values.
🏗️ Government Land Sales (GLS) · 2026
Supply pipeline signals from the world's most controlled land market
| Site | Type | Region | Est. Units | Status | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanjong Rhu Road | Private Res. | RCR | ~300 | Awarded · $1,455 psf ppr | Record RCR price |
| Lentor Central | Private Res. | OCR | ~570 | 5 bids · $657M top | Strong competition |
| Woodlands Drive 17 | EC | OCR | ~495 | Record $984 psf ppr EC | EC floor rising |
| Bayshore Road | Private Res. | OCR | ~480 | Upcoming · Mar/Apr 2026 | Watch closely |
| Mixed-Use (TBC) | Mixed | RCR | — | Scheduled 1H 2026 | Monitoring |
🎯 Expert Read — March 2026 Strategy
Actionable intelligence for upgraders, local investors, and overseas capital
The window to sell your HDB while prices hold firm (RPI 209.7) is open — but it is not permanent. BTO completions from 2025 will gradually add resale competition from late 2026 onwards.
Meanwhile, private condo inventory is at a 15-quarter low and developers are pricing up. The gap between entry-level HDB ($1.7M resale) and entry private (new launch OCR ~$1.9–2.1M) has never been narrower.
Move: Assess your MOP status now. Those within 12 months of MOP should begin pre-planning the decoupling and financial structuring conversation.
CCR rental growth at +3.2% YoY with SORA at just 1.1–1.2% creates the most favourable carry environment since 2021. A $2M CCR condo at 3.2% gross yield generates $64K/year in rental income against ~$20–25K in mortgage interest.
GLS land prices at record highs signal that replacement cost for new launches is rising. Existing inventory in the same corridors becomes more valuable by comparison.
Move: Focus on CCR resale with strong rental track records. The new launch premium does not make sense when secondary market value is being underpinned by record GLS costs.
Dubai's supply tsunami (55,000–100,000 completions in 2026) against Singapore's 15-quarter inventory low is the starkest supply divergence between two major luxury markets globally right now.
The Iran war has disrupted Middle East capital flows — some of that rotation is finding Singapore. Add 2,000+ family offices calling Singapore home, SGD strength, and no currency risk, and the calculus is clear.
Move: For qualifying buyers, the ABSD is the price of entry into the world's most stable property market. Model total cost of ownership over 7–10 years — the appreciation thesis overwhelms the entry cost for the right asset.
- • Fed held at 3.5–3.75%; oil shock delays cuts to Sept/Oct
- • SORA 3M range-bound at 1.1–1.2% — favourable for borrowers
- • SG GDP upgraded to 3.6% by MAS survey consensus
- • MAS potentially tightening S$NEER slope in April
- • URA PPI: +0.89% QoQ, +5.08% YoY (Q3 2025)
- • Unsold inventory at 15-quarter low: 14,859 units
- • Newport Residences 57% sold at $3,370 psf (CCR)
- • HDB RPI flat at 209.7; $1.7M record at SkyTerrace@Dawson
- • GLS: record $1,455 psf ppr (Tanjong Rhu RCR)
- • Dubai: 55–100K unit supply wave threatens mid-market
- • Iran war disrupting Middle East capital allocation
- • SG family offices: 2,000+, up 43% YoY
- • CCR rental yield: 3.2% YoY growth — most durable income stream